I. Background
Capital market is a market in which individuals and institutions trade financial securities. Organizations/institutions in the public and private sectors also often sell securities on the capital markets in order to raise funds. Thus, this type of market is composed of both the primary and secondary markets. (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalmarkets.asp).
In other words, it is somewhat a facilitator so that enterprises and companies can raise long term funds. To add the information, capital market includes the stock and the bond market. Above we also see the term primary and secondary markets, which in primary markets, new stock or bond issues are sold to investors through a mechanism known as underwriting. In the secondary markets, existing securities are sold and bought among investors or traders, usually on a securities exchange, over-the-counter, or elsewhere.
The capital markets of all the countries have undergone a number of reforms in the history. Economic theories are made and implemented to reform the functionalities of the capital market. The prime objective behind all the policies and reforms was obviously to strengthen the capital market of a particular country as much as possible.
The countries that will be used and analyzed are Indonesia, Philippines, and Brazil. The capital market index for Indonesia that will be used is the JSX Composite or the IHSG, for Philippines will be the PSEi and for Brazil will be the Bovespa. The data of the corresponding capital market that will be used will begin at January 1st of 2006 until the end of April 2011. In other words, the range is 6 years. The data used is also in monthly because in comparing 3 countries and to analyze the relation among capital market,
II. History and Capital Markets Used for Analysis
1. JSX Composite or the IHSG (Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan) is the stock indexe that is used by Bursa Efek Indonesia. It was introduced first back in April 1983 as an indicator of the stock price movement in Bursa Efek. This index includes the movement of all the regular stock and the preferred stock which are recorded in BEI. From the data gathered from www.finance.yahoo.com, ranging 6 years monthly price, the highest point of closing price is 3819,62 which is this April 2011.
2. The PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange) Composite Index, commonly known previously as the PHISIX and presently as the PSEi, is the main stock market index of the Philippine Stock Exchange. The PSEi is the most watched index on the PSE and is also home to most major Philippine companies listed on the PSE. The PSEi is also the PSE's only broad-base index. It is also one of the indicators on the general state of the Philippine economy. The PSEi was one of the indices kept intact during the reclassification of the PSE's indices on January 2, 2006. The formal Philippines capital market is one of the oldest in Asia. The Manila Stock Exchange was established in 1927.Gold and copper mining stocks dominated trading during the first five decades of operation, and trade in oil stocks caused a boom in the late1970s. A rival financial group established a second stock exchange in 1963. After years of conflict, the government induced the two exchanges to merge in 1994 to form the Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE).The highest point of the closing price is at this April 2011 with the price of 4319,51.
3. The Bovespa Index is an index of about 50 stocks that are traded on the São Paulo Stock, Mercantile & Futures Exchange (Bovespa: BOlsa de Valores do Estado de São PAulo). IBOVESPA is an accumulation index. Its index number represents the present value of a portfolio begun on 2 January 1968, with a starting value of 100 and taking into account share price increases plus the reinvestment of all dividends, subscription rights and bonus stocks received. It is one of the largest exchanges in the world in terms of market value, the second largest in the Americas, and the leading exchange in Latin America. In today’s global scenario, in which the ability to respond quickly to market changes has become increasingly important, BM&FBOVESPA is an attractive investment option with cost-efficient trading fees. BM&FBOVESPA trades stocks, public and private sector securities, futures contracts based on financial assets, indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and commodities, in addition to spot US Dollar and gold. Trading is carried out exclusively in the electronic trading system, where investors can perform transactions involving stock purchases and sales, hedge, price arbitration between markets and/or assets, portfolio diversification and position leverage. As the leader in the Latin American equity and derivatives markets, the mission of BM&FBOVESPA is to contribute to regional macroeconomic growth and to position Brazil as an international financial hub for equities, commodities, and other financial instruments, combining operational excellence with a socially responsible approach. The highest point of Bovespa Index is at May 2008 with the value of 72593.
III. Factors Used for the Analysis
#Market efficiency
Market efficiency is the degree of the reflection of the stock which correspondent to the available information. Market efficiency has varying degrees: strong, semi-strong, and weak. Weak form: all the past prices for a stock explicitly reflect the information available. Semi-Strong form: the price is reflected not only by all of the past prices, but also all publicly available information. Strong form: the price of the stock is reflected with all the information that could be achieved by doing a deeper analysis of the company and the condition of the economy. Stock prices in a perfectly efficient market reflect all available information. These levels suggest that the responsiveness of stock prices to relevant information may vary (Investopedia.com). The level of information available is different among countries. That is why this will be one of the tools used for analysis.
#Volume of transaction
Volume here represents the number of shares or contracts traded in an entire market during a given period of time. In the context of stock trading on a stock exchange, the volume is usually known as the number of shares that is exchanged during the day. Average volume is reported as the average volume over a longer period of time, normally one to three months.
When the significant positive or negative news is made public about a company, the volume of the company's stock will usually deviate from its average volume, meaning that more people are trading this stock. Higher volume for a stock is an indicator of higher liquidity.
#Interest rate
The interest rate plays a factor in the decision of a foreign investor to invest in a certain country. An interest rate is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money that they borrow from a lender. For example, a small company borrows capital from a bank to buy new assets for their business, and in return the lender receives interest at a predetermined interest rate for deferring the use of funds instead of lending it to the borrower. Interest rates are normally expressed as a percentage rate over the period of one year
Usually it needs to reach a certain level of interest rate in order to entice them to invest. Indonesia for example, when the interest rate of Indonesia was 6.5%, the investors are still waiting for the rise to the rumored 6.75% because at that level, the return they get will be positive.
#Index Movement
This factor will see whether there is a certain pattern to the movement of stock prices among countries. For example at a certain date when the price of the stock in Indonesia rises, the price of stock in Philippines and Brazil will be somewhat affected (increase or decrease) by it or not.
IV. Previous Research
1. The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows (2001) by Geert Bakaert (Columbia University), Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University), and Robin L. Lumsdaine (Brown University).
This study is about the interrelationship between capital, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. to develop a better understanding of the relation between capital flows and asset prices. This study uses various model and calculations in order to investigate the things about capital market. Some of the calculations that they used are like presented below which purpose is calculation with world interest rate.
2. Analysis of Cointegration of Capital Markets of France, Germany, and United Kingdom by Hande Erdinc and Joniada Milla from the university of Nebraska, Omaha.
This study in particular, emphasizes the degree of integration of stock markets around the world. Those capital markets all over the world have become increasingly integrated and co-movements among major financial markets have been rising.
V. Analysis and Comparison
Between these three countries, the flow of information in Philippine regarding to the capital market is considered to be most limited. The Philippines should exert more effort to liberalize its economy to encourage more foreign and domestic investment, the International Monetary Fund said in a report that noted the country's capital markets are less open than other markets in Asia. Because of that, the market efficiency in Philippine is weak, where deeper analysis is needed in order to grasp their pattern. While the other two countries are semi strong and strong where public information is easy to be acquired and the analysis using those available data can be done accurately.
Interpreting from these graphs, we can see that the relation between the capital market of Indonesia and of Brazil is not that established. Putting the graphic of Philippine aside since it is quite similar to Indonesia’s, the Brazil’s Bovespa index is having a liquidity issue because the volume of the transaction keeps on dropping to the lower point.
While at the same time, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index graph far differ from Brazil’s in a sense that although the volume of transaction is quite volatile, it doesn’t have any point where it drops altogether. This shows that the capital market of Indonesia’s quite liquid regardless of the events that are happening in the international region of another country.
From the graphs above we can see quite similarity in the movement of the stock price index between Indonesia, Philippine and Brazil. But the problem is that although it looks the same, it doesn’t truly mean they are connected with a clear pattern. Regardless of the movement in Philippine, because they are of one region, the movement of the stock closing price is just a hefty coincidence. The global recession in 2009 may play a part in the decrease of performance especially in the 34th month until the 40th for all three countries which support the theory unless some major event is happening, the correlation between the two capital market in Asia and the one in America is hard to be established
the return investment of all three countries are positive, with Indonesia 0.02100362, Philippine 0.01320801, and Brazil 0.01084204. Also the comparative beta relation between the 3 countries can be described as positive. It means that when 1 country’s capital performance increases, the other will also follow
VI. Conclusion
Looking and recapping various data acquired, the relation of the 3 countries’ capital markets naming Indonesia’s JSX, Philippine’s PSEi, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index, there is little relation that complement each other in the context of the capital market relation. As the previous study state that “Additionally, their economic structures are of the same character, and their relatively high level of development makes them possess the heaviest volume stock exchange markets in the European Union” based on this study, there needs to be some kind of similarity among countries compared.
The Philippine is quite similar to Indonesia in sense that it is of the almost same structure and that they are both the member of ASEAN. But Brazil, the far off America Latin country has little to do with South East Asian countries such as Indonesia and Philippine. Since in Brazil, everything is different, we can see from the volume of transaction there is completely incomparable to the Indonesian graphic. Not to mention the all the policy, interest rate, the difference in currency, and the particular events that will affect a certain capital market in certain country.
Also looking from the graph of the closing price in the country of Indonesia and Philippine we can establish a connection among them because they look most similar, different from the Brazil counterparts. In other words, in order for a country’s capital market to affect each other, they need to be in the same region and not too far off the area. Unless, that is, some significant event like just for examples the neverending conflict of Libya that ends with the loss of oil supply percentage that can be exported to the world or if, I hope it does not happen, the war between South Korea and North Korea were to happen.
Minggu, 01 Mei 2011
Rabu, 24 November 2010
The Summary Of Holcim Indonesia.Tbk Report
Holcim was commercially operational in 1975 and are now (2010) led by a chief executive officer by the name of Eamon John Ginley and it is located in Gatot Subroto St. number 38, Jakarta. There are plants of Holcim located in Narogong, West Java, and Cilacap, Central Java. The Company and its subsidiaries had a total number of employees of 2,560 in 2010 and 2,537 in 2009.
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Holcim, that was first known as Semen Cibinong before 2006, is a pioneer and an innovator in Indonesia’s fast-developing cement sector, as the market for homes, commercial buildings and infrastructure expands and are the provider of a fully integrated range of nine cement types, concrete and aggregates and also are building a unique franchise in delivering complete, affordable housing solutions and upgrades, drawing on the skills of over 3000 Holcim trained masons, over 43 franchisees and over 9000 retail outlets across the island of Java.
Holcim Beton was the first to market with MiniMix phone service for quick (ready on the same day it is ordered) mixed concrete delivery, and first with mobile concrete batching plants. They are also one of the pioneers in creating a professional centre of excellence in professional and managerial skills, the Holcim Academy, drawing students from across Southeast Asia.
Holcim serve the home market of the island of Java from two major production sites and a grinding station with a combined finished cement capacity of 8.265 million tonnes. They operate multiple concrete batching plants, two stone quarries and a wide-ranging logistics network of warehouses and silos.
Their Geocycle team provides complete waste solutions for industry, municipalities and agriculture. They established safe disposal of CFC ozone depleting gases – the first facility in Southeast Asia. They also earn carbon credits under the UNFCCC Clean Development Mechanism for co-processing biomass, thus eradicating CO2 emissions from decomposition of discarded agricultural waste.
In 2008 the distinctive Holcim brand was the first in the cement industry in Indonesia to achieve Super brand status and attained first prize in the environmental category in the NCSR Sustainable Development Reporting Awards. Holcim are a 2008 Presidential Award winner for safety, 2006 winner of the Dupont/Warta Ekonomi prize for “Most caring company for safety”, Green PROPER status and the holder of gold status on security management from the Indonesian Police force.
In September 2009, the Company acquired 100% share ownership in Holcim Sdn. Bhd., Malaysia, (HSB), and a company engages in cement production and domiciles in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, at the amount of US$36,847,519 or Rp365, 788 million.
The average and the standard deviation of the RI (Return on Investment) of the Holcim Indonesia.Tbk and the RM (Return Market) index of the IHSG
Table 1
The table shows to us that the Holcim Company is having an improvement from its average and the standard deviation of the investment return (RI) as well as its return of the market stock (RM). As we can see on the table above, the average of the return investment of Holcim is 0.001591 and its standard deviation is 0.02198. When compared to the IHSG index which is the return market of the stock with the average of 0.001607 and the standard deviation of 0.01276, it would be clear that the Holcim Company isn’t too far left behind by the rest of the major companies in Indonesia which are listed among the list of IHSG index.
During the period of 2nd January until 30th October 2010, the company is steadily growing and there are no radical increases to a stock and there are also no radical decreases to a stock price. For example that today’s stock is 1600 and tomorrow the stock just skyrocketed into 3000 or just plummeted into 300. And also, if we compare the company’s stock to the ones at IHSG, the Holcim Indonesia.Tbk we can see that without some serious effort from Holcim, they’re never going to close the distance between them since IHSG also grow at the same time.
Standard deviation rate could be assumed as risk rate that an investor have by doing investment on the company. Bigger standard deviation value means bigger range of investment return rate, both positive and negative. For example, IHSG have average rate value 0.001773 and standard deviation rate 0.012871 means that the returns range mostly between 0.001773 ±0.012871. They could loss as big as – (0.001773- 0.012871) or gain at most (0.001773 +0.012871) in general.
The average return value of Holcim Indonesia.Tbk is 0.002074 and the standard deviation is 0.0022013 It means that the average value for return from stock in January 2nd until 30th October 2010 is 0.002074 and most of rate value distribution is 0.022013 higher or lower than the average. The positive value of average means that mostly, the investment give positive return compared to the previous day stock closing price.
Now, on to the analysis of the Beta of the Holcim Company but first we need to take a look at the definition of it. Beta (β) of a stock or portfolio is a number describing the relation of its returns with that of the financial market as a whole. An asset with a Beta of zero means that its returns change independently of changes in the market's returns. A positive beta means that the asset's returns generally follow the market's returns, in the sense that they both tend to be above their respective averages together, or both tend to be below their respective averages together. A negative beta means that the asset's returns generally move opposite the market's returns: one will tend to be above its average when the other is below its average.
So, in other words with the beta of 1.08465, Holcim Company is in this sense, having a positive beta Holcim’s returns generally follow the market’s return. When the IHSG’s stock price index increases, so does the price index of the Holcim Company. What does this signifies? It signifies the investment risk of an investor who is trying to invest in a certain company. So, in this case investors who want to invest there could breathe a little bit more easier rather than if they invest in a company who moves in the iron sector.
At 27th of January 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its lowest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at Rp 1570, at this time the company was experiencing a steady growth; even though this date’s stock price is the lowest at the time, it is no more than a minor fluctuation since the next day forward the company’s stock price keeps raising steadily. At this time, they are still recovering from the impacts of the global financial crisis and still under adjustment. They are also researching new products like Holcim Quick and Fast cement that made them sacrifice some of the capital for the sake of research and development of the product.
At the 1st of October 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its highest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at rp 2500, at this time, again, the company is beginning to arrive at the precipice of whether the stock price will go up again or down. Unfortunately, this number of 2500 is as high as it going to get in this period. But nevertheless, the company is steadily growing. This could be noted from the structure of the stock which never strays too far away from the original one. For example, if today’s stock is about 2500 then tomorrow it could be 2520 or 2480 and that’s about it. So in other words, which I could hardly restrain from using over and over again, the company’s just growing. This event of stock price increase is also affected by the successful acquisition of the Malaysia Holcim which is ready to assist the production of the cement in Indonesia (especially in Sumatra region).
Not only that, one more reason for the increase is that Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) was having a growth of net profit of 37,85%. This increase was accompanied by the sales increase of 8, 11%. Coming the year of 2010, SMCB has recorded a sales of Rp 2,852 trillion, that’s an increase of 8, 11% from Rp 2,638 trillion. And this growth will surely continue until the end of the year 2010 and still growing I’m sure. According to the Relationship Management Director of SMCB Rusli Setiawan, the increase of profit was produced from the enhancement of the operation efficiency and the ability of the company’s cost management resulting only 5% in selling price amidst the unstable economic condition of Indonesia.
Even the gross profit increases 14% with the profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) goes up 14% to Rp 832, 8 billion. While at the same time, the operation cost falls under control with the increase only of 7% period. While on the period, the net profit was recorded at Rp 386 billon, up 37, 85% compared to the last period at Rp 280 billion
There are series of different factors influences the stock market. Primarily, the amount of money that a company earns helps drive the stock price. The changes in these different values and, more importantly, the consistent fluctuation make it possible for the stock market to go up and down. So, based on the events above, we can conclude that the factors that affect the stock are Earnings, as a stock's earnings continue to go up, investors begin to gain confidence in the company because they are returning profits. Therefore, more investors put their money into the company as the earnings continue to go up. However, at the same time, when the company's earnings begin to go down, investors begin to lose faith in the company and pull their money out of the stock. This, in turn, causes the price of the stock to drop. The earnings of the company could be seen from the market share that the chart. The Holcim Indonesia only holds 15% of the Indonesian market share of cement product and Indocement holds 30% of it while the king is Gresik cement which holds over 45% percent and the rest is only 10%. So, in respect to this, the earning that Holcim Indonesia has is not that great compared to Indoncement and Gresik Cement as the major competitor of the Cement industries.
And also unemployment, a company's earnings is based on the amount of money that people have to buy products. When unemployment begins to rise, there is less money in the economy to purchase goods which causes profits to drop. As this happens, the economy tightens and investors pull their money out of those stocks. On the other hand, though, if unemployment drops and the economy is flourishing, people buy more goods and this makes the company appear stronger. The result of this is that people are more willing to throw their money into these prospering companies and the stock rises. This also affects the Holcim, not only unemployment increases from year to year in Indonesia, but also the land keeps on decreasing. The decreasing of land indicates that there will be less space to build buildings. Sure that cement can also be used for renovating and creating not only house and malls but also bridges and oil rigs. But the profit’s has got to decrease at some point.
BCG Matrix analysis of Holcim
Holcim, as was explained in the company profile section is a company in the field of construction. So, the products that produced are all close to that context of construction. Here is the list of the brands of cement and concrete that is produced by Holcim and its specifications.
Holcim Durable: raft foundation, dam or heavy abutment, high performance concrete application, bored pile and concrete retaining walls, mass concrete pouring, jetties, piers or wharves with highly reinforced structures, underwater concreting, concrete application with marine environmental exposure.
Holcim Extra Durable: high durability concrete application, jetties, piers or wharves with highly reinforced structures, underwater concreting, concrete that will be exposed to environmental chlorides from de-icing salts or high sulphate content.
Holcim Drillwell Plus : recommended for oil wells where the temperature conditions rise up to 500oF and pressure of 30,000 Psi in extremely deep holes, ideal cement to make grouts used to cement oil & geothermic wells.
Holcim Ready Flow: general reinforced concrete construction, lightweight concrete application, Concrete drainage channels and pre-cast piping, concrete road & paving block, concrete block & wall panel, pre-cast product, bridges and dams.
Holcim Ready Flow Plus : general reinforced concrete construction, load bearing pre-cast concrete element (e.g. bridge girders, piles, concrete box), towers and chimneys, structures constructed using traveling forms or slip forms, lightweight concrete application, irrigation canals, tanks and reservoirs, high early strength concrete application.
Holcim All Purpose (Serba Guna): general reinforced concrete construction, concrete paneling for architectural purposes, mortar for bricklaying, plastering & skim coating, lightweight concrete application, concrete block & wall panel, pre-cast product.
Holcim Smooth Fiber: pre-cast product, fibre roof & sheet.
Holcim Ready Mixed Concrete: high quality cement, carefully selected sand and aggregates graded for cleanliness and size, water and admixture to maximize workability and performance.
We will use the aid of BCG matrix in analyzing the positions of the product whether it’s a dog (are units with low market share in a mature, slow-growing industry), star (are units with a high market share in a fast-growing industry), question mark (are growing rapidly and thus consume large amounts of cash, but because they have low market shares they do not generate much cash and have the potential to degenerate into dog or lift into star), and cash cow (units with high market share in a slow-growing industry) as in the sense of which one fits into those categories.
The BCG Matrix of Holcim products
The dog (are units with low market share in a mature, slow-growing industry) is the Holcim Smooth Fibre product since it is quite an ordinary product and every industry of the same kind can manufacture the same thing with no problem. It also has no special feature whatsoever contained in it. It’s just a fiber, plain and simple which you can get pretty much everywhere.
The question mark (are growing rapidly and thus consume large amounts of cash, but because they have low market shares they do not generate much cash and have the potential to degenerate into dog or lift into star), part has several products contained in it that fits the category. The first product is the Holcim Drillwell Plus, because it’s still not clear whether the product really sells or not and has the possibility of degenerating into the level of dog. Drillwell plus is the cement intended for oil rigs so with the purchasing power of Indonesia, they couldn’t purchase too much of it. Holcim Durable and Extra Durable also fall under the category of question mark since the durability isn’t too much of a question. Actually, it is truly a question of long term survival of the building created but the problem with Indonesia is that they tend to think otherwise.
The stars (are units with a high market share in a fast-growing industry) are the ready mixed concrete, Holcim Ready Flow, and Holcim Ready Flow Plus. Ready mixed concrete is popular because they provide same day ready order and delivered with their own Mini-mix truck that can assist in the laying of the concrete to the area desired. Holcim Ready Flow and Holcim Ready Flow are stars for quite the similar reason, since they prioritize speed and are used in all kinds of constructions ranging from the light ones such as house to the heavy ones such as bridges and dams.
The cash cows (units with high market share in a slow-growing industry) is the all purpose (serbaguna) cement that are widely used in all kinds of construction but on the level that every degree of the population know what to buy from its name and hence act as the cash cow of the company. This particular brand is already mature and don’t need further marketing and it will still give cash.
CONCLUSION
Based on the data that has been collected and analyzed, the company’s performance is very promising. Not to mention because, of the Malaysian Branch of Holcim that recently got acquisitioned by Indonesia’s Branch. During the period of 2nd January until 30th October 2010, the company is steadily growing and there are no radical increases to a stock and there are also no radical decreases to a stock price the average of the return investment of Holcim is 0.001591 and its standard deviation is 0.02198. When compared to the IHSG index which is the return market of the stock with the average of 0.001607 and the standard deviation of 0.01276, it would be clear that the Holcim Company isn’t too far left behind by the rest of the major companies in Indonesia which are listed among the list of IHSG index. The average return value of Holcim Indonesia.Tbk is 0.002074 and the standard deviation is 0.0022013 It means that the average value for return from stock in January 2nd until 30th October 2010 is 0.002074 and most of rate value distribution is 0.022013 higher or lower than the average.
At 27th of January 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its lowest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at Rp 1570, at this time the company was experiencing a steady growth; even though this date’s stock price is the lowest at the time, it is no more than a minor fluctuation since the next day forward the company’s stock price keeps raising steadily. At this time, they are still recovering from the impacts of the global financial crisis and still under adjustment. They are also researching new products like Holcim Quick and Fast cement that made them sacrifice some of the capital for the sake of research and development of the product.
At the 1st of October 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its highest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at rp 2500, at this time, again, the company is beginning to arrive at the precipice of whether the stock price will go up again or down. Unfortunately, this number of 2500 is as high as it going to get in this period. But nevertheless, the company is steadily growing. This could be noted from the structure of the stock which never strays too far away from the original one. For example, if today’s stock is about 2500 then tomorrow it could be 2520 or 2480 and that’s about it. So in other words, which I could hardly restrain from using over and over again, the company’s just growing. This event of stock price increase is also affected by the successful acquisition of the Malaysia Holcim which is ready to assist the production of the cement in Indonesia (especially in Sumatra region).
Not only that, one more reason for the increase is that Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) was having a growth of net profit of 37,85%. This increase was accompanied by the sales increase of 8, 11%. Coming the year of 2010, SMCB has recorded a sales of Rp 2,852 trillion, that’s an increase of 8, 11% from Rp 2,638 trillion. And this growth will surely continue until the end of the year 2010 and still growing I’m sure. According to the Relationship Management Director of SMCB Rusli Setiawan, the increase of profit was produced from the enhancement of the operation efficiency and the ability of the company’s cost management resulting only 5% in selling price amidst the unstable economic condition of Indonesia.
Even the gross profit increases 14% with the profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) goes up 14% to Rp 832, 8 billion. While at the same time, the operation cost falls under control with the increase only of 7% period. While on the period, the net profit was recorded at Rp 386 billon, up 37, 85% compared to the last period at Rp 280 billion. This last part especially is the point that the performance of the company is quite well in 2010.
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Holcim, that was first known as Semen Cibinong before 2006, is a pioneer and an innovator in Indonesia’s fast-developing cement sector, as the market for homes, commercial buildings and infrastructure expands and are the provider of a fully integrated range of nine cement types, concrete and aggregates and also are building a unique franchise in delivering complete, affordable housing solutions and upgrades, drawing on the skills of over 3000 Holcim trained masons, over 43 franchisees and over 9000 retail outlets across the island of Java.
Holcim Beton was the first to market with MiniMix phone service for quick (ready on the same day it is ordered) mixed concrete delivery, and first with mobile concrete batching plants. They are also one of the pioneers in creating a professional centre of excellence in professional and managerial skills, the Holcim Academy, drawing students from across Southeast Asia.
Holcim serve the home market of the island of Java from two major production sites and a grinding station with a combined finished cement capacity of 8.265 million tonnes. They operate multiple concrete batching plants, two stone quarries and a wide-ranging logistics network of warehouses and silos.
Their Geocycle team provides complete waste solutions for industry, municipalities and agriculture. They established safe disposal of CFC ozone depleting gases – the first facility in Southeast Asia. They also earn carbon credits under the UNFCCC Clean Development Mechanism for co-processing biomass, thus eradicating CO2 emissions from decomposition of discarded agricultural waste.
In 2008 the distinctive Holcim brand was the first in the cement industry in Indonesia to achieve Super brand status and attained first prize in the environmental category in the NCSR Sustainable Development Reporting Awards. Holcim are a 2008 Presidential Award winner for safety, 2006 winner of the Dupont/Warta Ekonomi prize for “Most caring company for safety”, Green PROPER status and the holder of gold status on security management from the Indonesian Police force.
In September 2009, the Company acquired 100% share ownership in Holcim Sdn. Bhd., Malaysia, (HSB), and a company engages in cement production and domiciles in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, at the amount of US$36,847,519 or Rp365, 788 million.
The average and the standard deviation of the RI (Return on Investment) of the Holcim Indonesia.Tbk and the RM (Return Market) index of the IHSG
Table 1
The table shows to us that the Holcim Company is having an improvement from its average and the standard deviation of the investment return (RI) as well as its return of the market stock (RM). As we can see on the table above, the average of the return investment of Holcim is 0.001591 and its standard deviation is 0.02198. When compared to the IHSG index which is the return market of the stock with the average of 0.001607 and the standard deviation of 0.01276, it would be clear that the Holcim Company isn’t too far left behind by the rest of the major companies in Indonesia which are listed among the list of IHSG index.
During the period of 2nd January until 30th October 2010, the company is steadily growing and there are no radical increases to a stock and there are also no radical decreases to a stock price. For example that today’s stock is 1600 and tomorrow the stock just skyrocketed into 3000 or just plummeted into 300. And also, if we compare the company’s stock to the ones at IHSG, the Holcim Indonesia.Tbk we can see that without some serious effort from Holcim, they’re never going to close the distance between them since IHSG also grow at the same time.
Standard deviation rate could be assumed as risk rate that an investor have by doing investment on the company. Bigger standard deviation value means bigger range of investment return rate, both positive and negative. For example, IHSG have average rate value 0.001773 and standard deviation rate 0.012871 means that the returns range mostly between 0.001773 ±0.012871. They could loss as big as – (0.001773- 0.012871) or gain at most (0.001773 +0.012871) in general.
The average return value of Holcim Indonesia.Tbk is 0.002074 and the standard deviation is 0.0022013 It means that the average value for return from stock in January 2nd until 30th October 2010 is 0.002074 and most of rate value distribution is 0.022013 higher or lower than the average. The positive value of average means that mostly, the investment give positive return compared to the previous day stock closing price.
Now, on to the analysis of the Beta of the Holcim Company but first we need to take a look at the definition of it. Beta (β) of a stock or portfolio is a number describing the relation of its returns with that of the financial market as a whole. An asset with a Beta of zero means that its returns change independently of changes in the market's returns. A positive beta means that the asset's returns generally follow the market's returns, in the sense that they both tend to be above their respective averages together, or both tend to be below their respective averages together. A negative beta means that the asset's returns generally move opposite the market's returns: one will tend to be above its average when the other is below its average.
So, in other words with the beta of 1.08465, Holcim Company is in this sense, having a positive beta Holcim’s returns generally follow the market’s return. When the IHSG’s stock price index increases, so does the price index of the Holcim Company. What does this signifies? It signifies the investment risk of an investor who is trying to invest in a certain company. So, in this case investors who want to invest there could breathe a little bit more easier rather than if they invest in a company who moves in the iron sector.
At 27th of January 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its lowest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at Rp 1570, at this time the company was experiencing a steady growth; even though this date’s stock price is the lowest at the time, it is no more than a minor fluctuation since the next day forward the company’s stock price keeps raising steadily. At this time, they are still recovering from the impacts of the global financial crisis and still under adjustment. They are also researching new products like Holcim Quick and Fast cement that made them sacrifice some of the capital for the sake of research and development of the product.
At the 1st of October 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its highest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at rp 2500, at this time, again, the company is beginning to arrive at the precipice of whether the stock price will go up again or down. Unfortunately, this number of 2500 is as high as it going to get in this period. But nevertheless, the company is steadily growing. This could be noted from the structure of the stock which never strays too far away from the original one. For example, if today’s stock is about 2500 then tomorrow it could be 2520 or 2480 and that’s about it. So in other words, which I could hardly restrain from using over and over again, the company’s just growing. This event of stock price increase is also affected by the successful acquisition of the Malaysia Holcim which is ready to assist the production of the cement in Indonesia (especially in Sumatra region).
Not only that, one more reason for the increase is that Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) was having a growth of net profit of 37,85%. This increase was accompanied by the sales increase of 8, 11%. Coming the year of 2010, SMCB has recorded a sales of Rp 2,852 trillion, that’s an increase of 8, 11% from Rp 2,638 trillion. And this growth will surely continue until the end of the year 2010 and still growing I’m sure. According to the Relationship Management Director of SMCB Rusli Setiawan, the increase of profit was produced from the enhancement of the operation efficiency and the ability of the company’s cost management resulting only 5% in selling price amidst the unstable economic condition of Indonesia.
Even the gross profit increases 14% with the profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) goes up 14% to Rp 832, 8 billion. While at the same time, the operation cost falls under control with the increase only of 7% period. While on the period, the net profit was recorded at Rp 386 billon, up 37, 85% compared to the last period at Rp 280 billion
There are series of different factors influences the stock market. Primarily, the amount of money that a company earns helps drive the stock price. The changes in these different values and, more importantly, the consistent fluctuation make it possible for the stock market to go up and down. So, based on the events above, we can conclude that the factors that affect the stock are Earnings, as a stock's earnings continue to go up, investors begin to gain confidence in the company because they are returning profits. Therefore, more investors put their money into the company as the earnings continue to go up. However, at the same time, when the company's earnings begin to go down, investors begin to lose faith in the company and pull their money out of the stock. This, in turn, causes the price of the stock to drop. The earnings of the company could be seen from the market share that the chart. The Holcim Indonesia only holds 15% of the Indonesian market share of cement product and Indocement holds 30% of it while the king is Gresik cement which holds over 45% percent and the rest is only 10%. So, in respect to this, the earning that Holcim Indonesia has is not that great compared to Indoncement and Gresik Cement as the major competitor of the Cement industries.
And also unemployment, a company's earnings is based on the amount of money that people have to buy products. When unemployment begins to rise, there is less money in the economy to purchase goods which causes profits to drop. As this happens, the economy tightens and investors pull their money out of those stocks. On the other hand, though, if unemployment drops and the economy is flourishing, people buy more goods and this makes the company appear stronger. The result of this is that people are more willing to throw their money into these prospering companies and the stock rises. This also affects the Holcim, not only unemployment increases from year to year in Indonesia, but also the land keeps on decreasing. The decreasing of land indicates that there will be less space to build buildings. Sure that cement can also be used for renovating and creating not only house and malls but also bridges and oil rigs. But the profit’s has got to decrease at some point.
BCG Matrix analysis of Holcim
Holcim, as was explained in the company profile section is a company in the field of construction. So, the products that produced are all close to that context of construction. Here is the list of the brands of cement and concrete that is produced by Holcim and its specifications.
Holcim Durable: raft foundation, dam or heavy abutment, high performance concrete application, bored pile and concrete retaining walls, mass concrete pouring, jetties, piers or wharves with highly reinforced structures, underwater concreting, concrete application with marine environmental exposure.
Holcim Extra Durable: high durability concrete application, jetties, piers or wharves with highly reinforced structures, underwater concreting, concrete that will be exposed to environmental chlorides from de-icing salts or high sulphate content.
Holcim Drillwell Plus : recommended for oil wells where the temperature conditions rise up to 500oF and pressure of 30,000 Psi in extremely deep holes, ideal cement to make grouts used to cement oil & geothermic wells.
Holcim Ready Flow: general reinforced concrete construction, lightweight concrete application, Concrete drainage channels and pre-cast piping, concrete road & paving block, concrete block & wall panel, pre-cast product, bridges and dams.
Holcim Ready Flow Plus : general reinforced concrete construction, load bearing pre-cast concrete element (e.g. bridge girders, piles, concrete box), towers and chimneys, structures constructed using traveling forms or slip forms, lightweight concrete application, irrigation canals, tanks and reservoirs, high early strength concrete application.
Holcim All Purpose (Serba Guna): general reinforced concrete construction, concrete paneling for architectural purposes, mortar for bricklaying, plastering & skim coating, lightweight concrete application, concrete block & wall panel, pre-cast product.
Holcim Smooth Fiber: pre-cast product, fibre roof & sheet.
Holcim Ready Mixed Concrete: high quality cement, carefully selected sand and aggregates graded for cleanliness and size, water and admixture to maximize workability and performance.
We will use the aid of BCG matrix in analyzing the positions of the product whether it’s a dog (are units with low market share in a mature, slow-growing industry), star (are units with a high market share in a fast-growing industry), question mark (are growing rapidly and thus consume large amounts of cash, but because they have low market shares they do not generate much cash and have the potential to degenerate into dog or lift into star), and cash cow (units with high market share in a slow-growing industry) as in the sense of which one fits into those categories.
The BCG Matrix of Holcim products
The dog (are units with low market share in a mature, slow-growing industry) is the Holcim Smooth Fibre product since it is quite an ordinary product and every industry of the same kind can manufacture the same thing with no problem. It also has no special feature whatsoever contained in it. It’s just a fiber, plain and simple which you can get pretty much everywhere.
The question mark (are growing rapidly and thus consume large amounts of cash, but because they have low market shares they do not generate much cash and have the potential to degenerate into dog or lift into star), part has several products contained in it that fits the category. The first product is the Holcim Drillwell Plus, because it’s still not clear whether the product really sells or not and has the possibility of degenerating into the level of dog. Drillwell plus is the cement intended for oil rigs so with the purchasing power of Indonesia, they couldn’t purchase too much of it. Holcim Durable and Extra Durable also fall under the category of question mark since the durability isn’t too much of a question. Actually, it is truly a question of long term survival of the building created but the problem with Indonesia is that they tend to think otherwise.
The stars (are units with a high market share in a fast-growing industry) are the ready mixed concrete, Holcim Ready Flow, and Holcim Ready Flow Plus. Ready mixed concrete is popular because they provide same day ready order and delivered with their own Mini-mix truck that can assist in the laying of the concrete to the area desired. Holcim Ready Flow and Holcim Ready Flow are stars for quite the similar reason, since they prioritize speed and are used in all kinds of constructions ranging from the light ones such as house to the heavy ones such as bridges and dams.
The cash cows (units with high market share in a slow-growing industry) is the all purpose (serbaguna) cement that are widely used in all kinds of construction but on the level that every degree of the population know what to buy from its name and hence act as the cash cow of the company. This particular brand is already mature and don’t need further marketing and it will still give cash.
CONCLUSION
Based on the data that has been collected and analyzed, the company’s performance is very promising. Not to mention because, of the Malaysian Branch of Holcim that recently got acquisitioned by Indonesia’s Branch. During the period of 2nd January until 30th October 2010, the company is steadily growing and there are no radical increases to a stock and there are also no radical decreases to a stock price the average of the return investment of Holcim is 0.001591 and its standard deviation is 0.02198. When compared to the IHSG index which is the return market of the stock with the average of 0.001607 and the standard deviation of 0.01276, it would be clear that the Holcim Company isn’t too far left behind by the rest of the major companies in Indonesia which are listed among the list of IHSG index. The average return value of Holcim Indonesia.Tbk is 0.002074 and the standard deviation is 0.0022013 It means that the average value for return from stock in January 2nd until 30th October 2010 is 0.002074 and most of rate value distribution is 0.022013 higher or lower than the average.
At 27th of January 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its lowest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at Rp 1570, at this time the company was experiencing a steady growth; even though this date’s stock price is the lowest at the time, it is no more than a minor fluctuation since the next day forward the company’s stock price keeps raising steadily. At this time, they are still recovering from the impacts of the global financial crisis and still under adjustment. They are also researching new products like Holcim Quick and Fast cement that made them sacrifice some of the capital for the sake of research and development of the product.
At the 1st of October 2010 the Holcim Company is experiencing its highest of stock price according to the data ranging from 2nd January 2010 to 30th October 2010 which is at rp 2500, at this time, again, the company is beginning to arrive at the precipice of whether the stock price will go up again or down. Unfortunately, this number of 2500 is as high as it going to get in this period. But nevertheless, the company is steadily growing. This could be noted from the structure of the stock which never strays too far away from the original one. For example, if today’s stock is about 2500 then tomorrow it could be 2520 or 2480 and that’s about it. So in other words, which I could hardly restrain from using over and over again, the company’s just growing. This event of stock price increase is also affected by the successful acquisition of the Malaysia Holcim which is ready to assist the production of the cement in Indonesia (especially in Sumatra region).
Not only that, one more reason for the increase is that Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) was having a growth of net profit of 37,85%. This increase was accompanied by the sales increase of 8, 11%. Coming the year of 2010, SMCB has recorded a sales of Rp 2,852 trillion, that’s an increase of 8, 11% from Rp 2,638 trillion. And this growth will surely continue until the end of the year 2010 and still growing I’m sure. According to the Relationship Management Director of SMCB Rusli Setiawan, the increase of profit was produced from the enhancement of the operation efficiency and the ability of the company’s cost management resulting only 5% in selling price amidst the unstable economic condition of Indonesia.
Even the gross profit increases 14% with the profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) goes up 14% to Rp 832, 8 billion. While at the same time, the operation cost falls under control with the increase only of 7% period. While on the period, the net profit was recorded at Rp 386 billon, up 37, 85% compared to the last period at Rp 280 billion. This last part especially is the point that the performance of the company is quite well in 2010.
Rabu, 01 September 2010
The End of All
Conclusion
Corporations or firms are in the business of managing risks. The most adept ones succeed while the others who cannot, fails. While some firms accept financial risks, some might attempt to create a competitive advantage by administering a wise amount of risk exposure. It, however, does not change the fact that risks must be monitored since they have the potential not only for profit but also damage.
The conclusion is that Trubus Bakery has quite a good risk management to deal with situations that might trouble them like the risks mentioned above. They have a good way to avert and avoid risk that might hamper their way to profit since most of the risk that they face has an attribute which could not be utilized or exploited to making profit.
Corporations or firms are in the business of managing risks. The most adept ones succeed while the others who cannot, fails. While some firms accept financial risks, some might attempt to create a competitive advantage by administering a wise amount of risk exposure. It, however, does not change the fact that risks must be monitored since they have the potential not only for profit but also damage.
The conclusion is that Trubus Bakery has quite a good risk management to deal with situations that might trouble them like the risks mentioned above. They have a good way to avert and avoid risk that might hamper their way to profit since most of the risk that they face has an attribute which could not be utilized or exploited to making profit.
Trubus Fight the Risk
The Risks
Risk could be defined as an uncertainty about a particular event which could be quantified. There are two things that are needed in order for something to be called risk to exist. The first is uncertainty about the potential outcomes from some event or experiment and the second is that the outcomes have to matter in providing utility. From the interview, some of the risks that Trubus Bakery has are:
1. The price of ingredients for making bread could just suddenly goes up because of the recent year of volatile economic condition. This risk is categorized as business risk which Trubus Bakery has to cope with. Because when this happen, the price of bread might just go up and because of that the number of customer might go down, lthough this risk also affects not only Trubus Bakery, but also the competitor who will have no other choice but to increase the price of the bread.
2. Because Trubus Bakery not only sells bread in its store but also utilizes local workforce to go into the streets and sell bakery, it is liable to have some risk. Anything could happen on the streets for example criminality or accident, the probability is low but this risk cannot be denied of its existence. Furthermore, low probability events almost always yield high level of risk. For example, a severe earthquake has a very low probability but the impact will be devastating. But in order to avert this risk, the Trubus Bakery pairs the selling force one to another so that they would not go to the streets alone, that way the risk is reduced.
3. There’s also the risk of the unsold bread. There’s no way that a bakery store could just store the unsold bread today so that they could be put into stand again the next day or the day after tomorrow. The freshness would be gone and the taste will be bad and if the customers eat such bread it will worsen their health. That is why the Trubus Bakery made the number of the bread based on their average number of sales in the past to make sure they do not made too much but just right.
Risk could be defined as an uncertainty about a particular event which could be quantified. There are two things that are needed in order for something to be called risk to exist. The first is uncertainty about the potential outcomes from some event or experiment and the second is that the outcomes have to matter in providing utility. From the interview, some of the risks that Trubus Bakery has are:
1. The price of ingredients for making bread could just suddenly goes up because of the recent year of volatile economic condition. This risk is categorized as business risk which Trubus Bakery has to cope with. Because when this happen, the price of bread might just go up and because of that the number of customer might go down, lthough this risk also affects not only Trubus Bakery, but also the competitor who will have no other choice but to increase the price of the bread.
2. Because Trubus Bakery not only sells bread in its store but also utilizes local workforce to go into the streets and sell bakery, it is liable to have some risk. Anything could happen on the streets for example criminality or accident, the probability is low but this risk cannot be denied of its existence. Furthermore, low probability events almost always yield high level of risk. For example, a severe earthquake has a very low probability but the impact will be devastating. But in order to avert this risk, the Trubus Bakery pairs the selling force one to another so that they would not go to the streets alone, that way the risk is reduced.
3. There’s also the risk of the unsold bread. There’s no way that a bakery store could just store the unsold bread today so that they could be put into stand again the next day or the day after tomorrow. The freshness would be gone and the taste will be bad and if the customers eat such bread it will worsen their health. That is why the Trubus Bakery made the number of the bread based on their average number of sales in the past to make sure they do not made too much but just right.
The Business of Trubus
The Business
It is already quite clear though what the business of Trubus Bakery delves; that is, of course, bakery. They, like any other bakery business, could also take special order from their customers, and for this, Trubus Bakery impose some tariffs on the request. In other words, the rate based on the existing activities in the production. And based on the interview, the factors that determine the price are:
1. The level of complexity (difficulty)
the more difficult and complicated form of bread being made, the price needed to be paid will also be higher. For example is the price to make a plain cake model will certainly be lower than the price to make cakes that have a purpose of wedding ceremony or birthday celebration.
2. The Ingredients of the bread
the quality of the materials used for the special request will also affect its pricing. They permit special seasonings and change of ingredients as long as it is acceptable and so long as it matched the customer’s preferences. But the main point is, to be blunt, Inexpensive material will yield affordable cake with so-so quality. But Vice-versa, expensive materials will yield expensive cake also with, of course, more delicacy.
And as for the number of employees that work in the Trubus Bakery, the number is approximately about forty until fifty employees consisting of the 15 people in the production department and the selling department about 20 people. And the rest of the worker does packaging in the company.
Trubus Bakery is also not without its competitors like Bread Talk, Parsley, and another local bread stores. So the question is that how does the company managed to survive? Of course the answer is competitive edge. And what is its competitive edge? It is the long years of local existence (maintaining tradition) and the quality and the delicacy of the bread and also the specific market segmentation (most of Trubus’ customers are senior people).
It is already quite clear though what the business of Trubus Bakery delves; that is, of course, bakery. They, like any other bakery business, could also take special order from their customers, and for this, Trubus Bakery impose some tariffs on the request. In other words, the rate based on the existing activities in the production. And based on the interview, the factors that determine the price are:
1. The level of complexity (difficulty)
the more difficult and complicated form of bread being made, the price needed to be paid will also be higher. For example is the price to make a plain cake model will certainly be lower than the price to make cakes that have a purpose of wedding ceremony or birthday celebration.
2. The Ingredients of the bread
the quality of the materials used for the special request will also affect its pricing. They permit special seasonings and change of ingredients as long as it is acceptable and so long as it matched the customer’s preferences. But the main point is, to be blunt, Inexpensive material will yield affordable cake with so-so quality. But Vice-versa, expensive materials will yield expensive cake also with, of course, more delicacy.
And as for the number of employees that work in the Trubus Bakery, the number is approximately about forty until fifty employees consisting of the 15 people in the production department and the selling department about 20 people. And the rest of the worker does packaging in the company.
Trubus Bakery is also not without its competitors like Bread Talk, Parsley, and another local bread stores. So the question is that how does the company managed to survive? Of course the answer is competitive edge. And what is its competitive edge? It is the long years of local existence (maintaining tradition) and the quality and the delicacy of the bread and also the specific market segmentation (most of Trubus’ customers are senior people).
Summary of the First Risk Management Assignment
1st Risk Management Assignment
The Risk of Trubus
Company Profile
The company that was chosen to be interviewed was the local bread making and selling company by the name of Trubus. The location is at Poncowinatan street number 17 and the telephone number is 517295. Trubus Bakery has been around in the city of Yogyakarta for quite some time although it is not clear since when. The Founder of the Trubus Bakery was named Ms. Trubus. Respondent that was interviewed was Ms. Ivony as the manager of Trubus Bakery.
Trubus Bakery also has some branches, for example in the Panti Rapih Hospital in Yogjakarta. Trubus Bakery also utilizes the local workforce to work outside Trubus’ store in order to take the product to the streets so that every level of customer could enjoy the delicacy of Trubus breads and cakes. That way, the need for marketing will decrease and at the same time will bring profit.
Types of products produced by Trubus Bakery are types of cakes, breads, pastry and other types of food although most of it is mainly bread. The growth of Trubus Bakery looks good and promising; it can be seen from the number of customers flooding into the store every day. The respondent, Ms Ivony, also said that they keep innovating without removing the old (traditional) ways that has been Trubus' identity since it was founded by Ms Trubus back in the day.
The Risk of Trubus
Company Profile
The company that was chosen to be interviewed was the local bread making and selling company by the name of Trubus. The location is at Poncowinatan street number 17 and the telephone number is 517295. Trubus Bakery has been around in the city of Yogyakarta for quite some time although it is not clear since when. The Founder of the Trubus Bakery was named Ms. Trubus. Respondent that was interviewed was Ms. Ivony as the manager of Trubus Bakery.
Trubus Bakery also has some branches, for example in the Panti Rapih Hospital in Yogjakarta. Trubus Bakery also utilizes the local workforce to work outside Trubus’ store in order to take the product to the streets so that every level of customer could enjoy the delicacy of Trubus breads and cakes. That way, the need for marketing will decrease and at the same time will bring profit.
Types of products produced by Trubus Bakery are types of cakes, breads, pastry and other types of food although most of it is mainly bread. The growth of Trubus Bakery looks good and promising; it can be seen from the number of customers flooding into the store every day. The respondent, Ms Ivony, also said that they keep innovating without removing the old (traditional) ways that has been Trubus' identity since it was founded by Ms Trubus back in the day.
Selasa, 24 Agustus 2010
The Reason I Take Risk Management
The reason why i have taken this course is to better understand the risks involving all kinds of dealing. All kinds of decision are not without its risks, and so by understanding that, i hope to have the ability to turn things around and use the risk to my advantage. but bluntly speaking, i have taken this course because i need one more subject so that my credit this semester shows "21"
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